Prediction of Liver Enzyme Elevation Using Supervised Machine Learning in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis on Treatment with Methotrexate.

Objective The aim of this study is to develop a machine learning (ML) model to accurately predict liver enzyme elevation in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients on treatment with methotrexate (MTX) using electronic health record (EHR) data from a real-world RA cohort. Methods Demographic, clinical, biochemical, and prescription information from 569 RA patients initiated on MTX were collected retrospectively. The primary outcome was the liver transaminase elevation above the upper limit of normal (40 IU/mL), following the initiation of MTX. The total dataset was randomly split into a training (80%) and test set (20%) and used to develop a random forest classifier model. The best model was selected after hyper-parameter tuning and fivefold cross-validation. Results A total of 104 (18.2%) patients developed elevated transaminase while on MTX therapy. The best-performing predictive model had an accuracy/F1 score of 0.87. The top 10 predictive features were then used to create a limited feature model that retained most of the predictive accuracy, with an accuracy/F1 score of 0.86. Baseline high-normal transaminase levels, and higher lymphocyte and neutrophil blood count proportions were the highest predictors of elevated transaminase levels after MTX therapy. Conclusion Our proof-of-concept study suggests the possibility of building a well-performing ML model to predict liver transaminase elevation in RA patients being treated with MTX. Similar ML models could be used to identify "high-risk" patients and target them for early stratification.

Crash Caesarean Delivery: How to Optimise Decision-to-Delivery Interval by Initiating a Novel Code? A Clinical Audit.

Background: Many resource-constrained centres fail to meet the international standard of 30 min of decision-to-delivery interval (DDI) of Category-1 crash caesarean deliveries. However, specific scenarios like acute foetal bradycardia and antepartum haemorrhage necessitate even faster interventions. Methods: A multidisciplinary team developed a "CODE-10 Crash Caesarean" rapid response protocol to limit DDI to 15 min. A multidisciplinary committee analysed a retrospective clinical audit of maternal-foetal outcomes over 15 months (August 2020-November 2021), and expert recommendations were sought. Results: The median DDI of twenty-five patients who underwent a "CODE-10 Crash Caesarean delivery" was 13 ± 6 min, with 92% (23/25) of DDIs falling below 15 min. Seven neonates required intensive care for more than 24 h with no maternal or neonatal mortality. DDIs during office and non-office hours were not significantly different (12.5 ± 6 min vs 13 ± 5 min, p = 0.911). Transport delays caused the two instances of DDI > 15 min. Conclusion: The novel "CODE-10 Crash Caesarean" protocol may be feasible for adoption in a similar tertiary-care setting with appropriate planning and training.

"Assisted vaginal birth using the Paily obstetric forceps vs Ventouse - A randomized clinical trial".

OBJECTIVE: Instruments used in assisted vaginal birth have seen little innovation for decades. Due to the risk of trauma and technical difficulty incurred during forceps delivery, instrumental deliveries are on a decline, and the global rate of primary cesarean birth is rising. The novel Paily Obstetric Forceps (POF) features a compact, lighter design with thinner blades, designed to increase operator comfort and minimize maternal and neonatal injuries. We aim to determine the feasibility and safety of POF in achieving vaginal birth compared to a ventouse device with a 50 mm silastic cup. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a single-blinded, parallel arm, randomized clinical trial of the novel POF vs a ventouse device, in patients undergoing indicated assisted vaginal birth, at a tertiary care obstetric unit. We randomized 100 patients to be allocated on a 1:1 ratio to both intervention arms. Primary outcome was the proportion of successful instrumental deliveries. Secondary outcomes were the number of pulls required during traction and any maternal or neonatal adverse events. RESULTS: The POF was significantly more successful in achieving vaginal birth than the ventouse device (n = 50/50, 100 % vs n = 42/50, 84 %, p = 0.006). Operators reported requiring significantly fewer pulls during POF traction than ventouse. POF demonstrated a higher risk for maternal trauma (RR = 3.2, 95 % CI = 1.5 to 6.9, NNH = 2.7) but a lower risk for neonatal injury (RR = 0.6, 95 % CI = 0.3 to 1, NNH = 5.7). Maternal and neonatal recovery durations were comparable. There were no incidences of maternal or neonatal mortality. CONCLUSION: The POF can be used in indicated assisted vaginal birth with superior success rates and better neonatal outcomes than ventouse. Other obstetric forceps must be standardized to conduct larger superiority trials of forceps designs.

COVID-19 Mortality and Remdesivir - A Retrospective Cohort in Intensive Care Setting.

BACKGROUND: Remdesivir is a broad-spectrum antiviral drug that received emergency use authorization in the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, its effectiveness in preventing mortality in COVID-19 patients who required intensive care was unclear. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed clinical data of 302 patients from intensive care units of a quaternary care center with moderate to severe COVID-19 illness and followed them until discharge between March 2020 and February 2021. Participants who received at least five doses of Remdesivir were compared against participants who received standard care. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included invasive mechanical ventilation, clinical worsening, and intensive care stay. RESULTS: Remdesivir use was not associated with all-cause mortality in this cohort (age and sex-adjusted OR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.4 -1.5, p = 0.409). However, when stratified for clinical severity and steroid use, Remdesivir demonstrated a strong negative association with all-cause mortality in severely ill patients (OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1 - 0.6, p = 0.003) or when used along with intravenous Methylprednisolone (Infusion/Bolus, OR 0.2/0.3, 95% CI 0.1 - 0.9 p = 0.06). Remdesivir use was not significantly associated with invasive mechanical ventilation or clinical worsening but with prolonged ICU stay. CONCLUSION: While Remdesivir use may not affect all-cause mortality in moderate to severely ill COVID-19 ICU patients, it may still benefit severely ill patients or when used with intravenous steroids. However, the limitations of the present study necessitate a randomized controlled trial to test this combined intervention strategy.

Managing placenta accreta spectrum in low-resource settings using a novel dissection-free aorta clamp: Operative technique.

OBJECTIVE: Surgical management of Placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) is associated with profuse bleeding and increased risk of operative injury to the adherent pelvic structures. We propose using a novel aorta clamp that can occlude the abdominal aorta without retroperitoneal dissection, thereby making it easy for an obstetrician-gynecologist to use it. The novel Paily aorta clamp (PAC) is applied just above the bifurcation of the abdominal aorta. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 33 women with varying grades of histopathology-confirmed PAS, who were managed as an elective or emergency procedure in a tertiary center in India. RESULTS: Twenty-nine women with advanced grades of PAS underwent sub-total/total hysterectomies, while four women with low-grade PAS underwent a conservative procedure. The procedures were associated with median estimated intra-operative blood loss of 1000 ± 1500 ml, with only 21.2% (n = 7) requiring a transfusion of four or more units packed red blood cells. PAC was applied for a median of 55 ± 20 min and was not associated with any perioperative aortic wall injury or distal thromboembolic phenomenon. CONCLUSION: Our experience using the novel PAC, in the current series and across multiple centers in India, demonstrates that the sizeable abdominal aorta can be clamped safely and effectively without retroperitoneal dissection-with no incidence of vascular injury so far. However, we would urge only designated centers with experienced obstetrician-gynecologists-backed by a urologist, adequate blood bank and intensive care facilities-to tackle PAS procedures using the PAC technique.

Arresting post-partum hemorrhage using the novel trans-vaginal uterine artery clamp.

OBJECTIVES: Post-partum hemorrhage (PPH) continues to be the leading cause of maternal mortality in low-resource settings. The commonest variant - Atonic PPH, is managed by additional pharmacological measures which may fail. Additional surgical interventions for hemostasis take time and are not universally available. Immediate arrest of bleeding was deemed essential and a novel Transvaginal Uterine Artery Clamp (TVUAC) was explored for its effectiveness in achieving immediate hemostasis in atonic and mixed post-partum hemorrhage. STUDY DESIGN: A retrospective chart review was performed for all patients, who underwent vaginal delivery and developed immediate post-partum atonic PPH, in a tertiary care center in South India, between 1st April 2015 and 31st December 2020. As soon as excess bleeding was observed, two TVUACs were applied trans-vaginally at 3' and 9'o clock position of the cervix to occlude the uterine arteries where it joins the isthmus of the uterus. RESULTS: Of 3999 vaginal deliveries, there were 251 patients who developed primary atonic PPH during the study period, of which 89 were managed by medical measures alone. Out of the remaining 162 patients, in 153 (94.4%) TVUAC helped to achieve hemostasis; with TVUAC alone in 120 patients (78.43%) and with an additional second line surgical intervention in 33 patients. In nine patients, TVUAC was not readily available and hence second line interventions alone were used. None required any third line surgical interventions (laparotomies) for hemostasis nor were there any incident of maternal mortality or consumptive coagulopathy. TVUAC was applied for a mean duration of 25 ± 10 min. Only 11.6% (29/251, 95% C.I 7.9-16.1%) of the patients required a blood transfusion with a median of 2 (1-4) units of packed RBC. No procedure related complications were reported up to a scheduled 6th week in-person follow-up. CONCLUSION: The novel TVUAC shows potential in limiting third line interventions, maternal morbidity and mortality. Its effectiveness and safety may be further explored as a first line surgical adjunct to medical measures, in PPH protocols in low-resource settings.

Telemedicine During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Paradigm Shift in Non-Communicable Disease Management? - A Cross-Sectional Survey from a Quaternary-Care Center in South India.

PURPOSE: This study aims to gauge the perception and adoption rates of telemedicine amongst patients with non-communicable diseases (NCD) as opposed to in-person consultations in a quaternary care center in South India. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A web-hosted 21-item cross-sectional survey was distributed to 220 randomly selected patients with a routine appointment in one of the seven departments caring for NCDs in the study center. Descriptive analysis and inferential analyses were done. Paired samples T-test and Pearson's Chi-square test were used study associations. RESULTS: In-person consultations decreased by 1.9±4.47 visits per year, in 2020 vs 2019. Most participants reported "fear of COVID-19" as the primary reason for this decline. Participants also reported that their consultation times had significantly decreased (OR=6.43, 95% CI=1.7-24.08, p=0.006). The decreased consultations time, difficulty in obtaining in-person appointments, along with the reduced physical examination during consultations have made participants more open to the idea of teleconsultations (OR=3.88, 95% CI=1.21-12.47, p=0.022). Eighty-five (38.63%) participants had already adopted telemedicine for their routine consultations during the pandemic. Whilst participants felt that telemedicine was an adequate surrogate for in-person consultations, a significant difficulty in obtaining medications was noted (OR=6, 95% CI=1.34-26.81, p=0.019). CONCLUSION: In-person consultations were decreased primarily due to the perception of significant risk of COVID-19 exposure in the present scenario. Telemedicine adoption in the private sector may be sustainable throughout the pandemic and beyond, if patients are offered to continue their routine consultations with their regular doctors and ensured medicine availability. Integration of telemedicine by the public and private health sector of India into routine NCD care delivery is the need of the hour, but further studies are required to estimate the effectiveness of the systems.

COVID-19 Readiness and Career Aspirations of South Indian Medical Students: A Cross-Sectional Survey Study.

PURPOSE: The second wave of COVID-19 devastated the medical sector on India and the government has implored medical students to aid the frontline workforce. This study aims to assess the knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of South Indian Medical students regarding the COVID-19 pandemic and their career aspirations. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is an online questionnaire based, cross-sectional study featuring a pre-validated questionnaire with a KAP section and a career aspiration survey section, which was distributed to South Indian medical schools between November and December 2020. Three hundred and four responses were included for analysis. RESULTS: Good knowledge levels were seen in 65.5% of participants, 51% had good attitude scores and 80.6% had good practice scores. The mean KAP score was 14.81 ± 1.77. 1.3% of the respondents had low level KAP scores, 57.2% had moderate level KAP scores and 41.4% of them had good level KAP scores. Majority aspired to continue post graduate medical training in Clinical medicine in India (n = 116, 38.2%), followed by Clinical Medicine outside India (n = 80, 26.3%). Students who chose "Research Work" (average rank [AR] = 192.70), "Clinical Medicine outside India" (AR =173.64) "Undecided" (AR = 148.59) and "Clinical Medicine in India" (AR = 146.63) as career aspiration featured better KAP scores compared to those students who preferred non-clinical specialties (AR = 96.73) and or a career change (AR =76.69) (p = 0.001). CONCLUSION: The KAP questionnaire revealed inadequate readiness amongst the majority of student participants. Targeted, structured educational interventions may be recommended in order to rapidly rectify the situation and deploy medical students to supplement the frontline workers in the COVID pandemic.

Cardiovascular risk assessment using ASCVD risk score in fibromyalgia: a single-centre, retrospective study using "traditional" case control methodology and "novel" machine learning.

BACKGROUND: In autoimmune inflammatory rheumatological diseases, routine cardiovascular risk assessment is becoming more important. As an increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is recognized in patients with fibromyalgia (FM), a combination of traditional CVD risk assessment tool with Machine Learning (ML) predictive model could help to identify non-traditional CVD risk factors. METHODS: This study was a retrospective case-control study conducted at a quaternary care center in India. Female patients diagnosed with FM as per 2016 modified American College of Rheumatology 2010/2011 diagnostic criteria were enrolled; healthy age and gender-matched controls were obtained from Non-communicable disease Initiatives and Research at AMrita (NIRAM) study database. Firstly, FM cases and healthy controls were age-stratified into three categories of 18-39 years, 40-59 years, and ≥ 60 years. A 10 year and lifetime CVD risk was calculated in both cases and controls using the ASCVD calculator. Pearson chi-square test and Fisher's exact were used to compare the ASCVD risk scores of FM patients and controls across the age categories. Secondly, ML predictive models of CVD risk in FM patients were developed. A random forest algorithm was used to develop the predictive models with ASCVD 10 years and lifetime risk as target measures. Model predictive accuracy of the ML models was assessed by accuracy, f1-score, and Area Under 'receiver operating Curve' (AUC). From the final predictive models, we assessed risk factors that had the highest weightage for CVD risk in FM. RESULTS: A total of 139 FM cases and 1820 controls were enrolled in the study. FM patients in the age group 40-59 years had increased lifetime CVD risk compared to the control group (OR = 1.56, p = 0.043). However, CVD risk was not associated with FM disease severity and disease duration as per the conventional statistical analysis. ML model for 10-year ASCVD risk had an accuracy of 95% with an f1-score of 0.67 and AUC of 0.825. ML model for the lifetime ASCVD risk had an accuracy of 72% with an f1-score of 0.79 and AUC of 0.713. In addition to the traditional risk factors for CVD, FM disease severity parameters were important contributors in the ML predictive models. CONCLUSION: FM patients of the 40-59 years age group had increased lifetime CVD risk in our study. Although FM disease severity was not associated with high CVD risk as per the conventional statistical analysis of the data, it was among the highest contributor to ML predictive model for CVD risk in FM patients. This also highlights that ML can potentially help to bridge the gap of non-linear risk factor identification.

Risk Factors for Mortality in Melioidosis: A Single-Centre, 10-Year Retrospective Cohort Study.

Melioidosis is a tropical infectious disease with diverse clinical presentations. We aimed to investigate the characteristics and mortality risk factors of patients diagnosed with melioidosis in the past 10 years. This was a retrospective cohort study conducted at a quaternary care centre in South India. Clinical, demographic, and biochemical data in patients diagnosed with melioidosis with cultures were collected between January 2011 and December 2020 from medical records. Logistic regression analysis was performed to screen mortality risk factors of melioidosis in addition to descriptive statistics and chi-square analysis. Seventy-three melioidosis patients' records were analysed, and the most common comorbidity was type 2 diabetes mellitus (n = 53, 72.6%). The patients showed diverse presentations: pulmonary involvement, 30 (41.1%); splenomegaly, 29 (39.7%); abscesses and cutaneous involvement, 18 (24.7%); lymph node, 10 (13.7%); arthritis and osteomyelitis, 9 (12.3%); and genitourinary infection, 4 (5.4%). The mortality was noted to be 15 (20.5%). Logistic regression analysis indicated that chronic kidney disease (OR = 14.0), CRP >100 IU/L (OR = 6.964), and S. albumin <3 gm/dl (OR = 8.0) were risk factors associated with mortality and can guide in risk stratification. Hypoalbuminemia is a novel mortality risk factor, detected in this study, and requires further investigation to validate its utility as a prognostic marker and reveal possible therapeutic benefits in clinical correction.